The consolidation race Sprint Cup handicap which runs at 3.15. The field of 17 is covered by 11lbs in the handicap with 3 year olds getting a weight for age allowance of 3lbs. The draw bias at Musselburgh is low (6 of last 9 big field winners over the trip have come from single figure draws) and the winners normally race prominently. The obvious place to start is Princess Ellis, who won a big field course and distance race from stall 14 this season, she pinged out and tracked across to the stands rail (low draws). This race is much better than that one and she is running from much higher in the handicap (18lbs), she however is in great form and looks the proverbial good thing. Green Park who is drawn high looks set to run a big race, beaten last time by Captain Dunne but showed good form and is 2lbs lower than his career best winning mark, he goes with the pace and looks likely to appreciate the return to turf. If these two cut each other’s throats then How’s She Cuttin’ could prosper, she normally runs from off the pace and is open to more improvement. Others to note are Avertuoso (10lbs lower than best winning mark) and Geojimali (1lb lower than best winning mark). However for the winner I have to return to Princess Ellis - JB.
Selection: Princess Ellis
Danger 1 – Green Park
Danger 2 – How’s She Cuttin’
Ascot 2:20 ladbrokes.com Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
A big prize on offer here and a competitive handicap to boot. In handicaps of this size I am looking for a consistent performer, which doesn't unfortunately exclude many. The soft ground will also make this a good test of stamina and so the obvious selection would appear to be Magicalmysterytour who won last time out in similar conditions beating Tastahil and staying on. Tastahil is now in receipt of 5lbs, is the more consistent performer and how many times have we seen a horse disappoint on it's second time out after a long break? Of those two Tastahil is my selection.
The second important race is the Marchpole Handicap run also at Ascot a couple of weeks ago and the first four home reoppose on softer ground and undoubtedly a stronger pace. Night Crescendo, winner in the race is easily opposed. No form on the ground and a lucky winner last time out, on slightly worse weight terms with Young Mick who won't encounter the same problems and should beat him comfortably on ground he likes. Drill Sergeant is flattered by his 3rd, he stayed on well but probably won't get the trip. He does like the ground and if he can dictate the pace may have a place chance. Pevensey has been well held by Young Mick so of these 4, Young Mick is the selection.
Allied Powers and Inventor are the last two on the shortlist. Inventor hasn't really had a chance to prove himself on this ground but Allied Powers has acquitted himself constantly and consistently. The only potential negative is the jockey, Spencer needs to keep him handy and commit him early to make this a real test. I think the horse is a bit gutless though, if he gets a march on Young Mick and Tastahil then he has a real chance but Tastahil is taken for the win with Young Mick and Allied Powers the dangers - AR.
Selection: Tastahil
Danger 1: Allied Powers
Danger 2: Young Mick
Bangor-On-Dee 2:25 toteswinger Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+)
The first Chase for the blog falls to me. Top weight is the mount of the champ AP McCoy. Interesting that his retainer, JP McManus runs one in the same race yet AP is given the leg up on the top weight. It says a lot for both horses chances. The Kings Of Angels has wins over shorter and further to his name so this trip is within his compass. Vadelle has been consistent but does not have his ground here. Another in that mould is course winner Rimsky who, although ran 3rd to Comply or Die in the Eider over further, likes ease under foot. Hold The Bid is another consistent sort who should be there or there about. Wins over 1f more and 1f less, goes on the ground, good chance. A couple of others to win at the track are Gidam Gidam and Bill’s Echo. The trip may be too much for the latter but Gidam Gidam has distance victories on his side. Down at the lower end of the weights is the mare Jim Bobs Girl. Another ultra consistent sort in this grade, she has wins over further. A pipe opener over hurdles last month may bring her on and with the jockey taking another 3lbs off her back I think she’s got a nice chance at decent odds - VE.
Selection: Jim Bobs Girl
Danger 1: Hold The Bid
Danger 2: The King Of Angels
Musselburgh 3:15 National Express York Sprint Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
The consolidation race will hold all the clues for this race. However as we have to do our form reading before the days racing I have to suggest low draws and prominent runners. Those who go with the pace and are low drawn include Fullandby, Ishetoo, Captain Dunne and Stoneacre Lad. The two I want to concentrate on are Ishetoo and Captain Dunne. The latter won very well last time out when beating Green Park, if that horse runs well then Captain Dunne has to be worth following. He has been extremely hit and miss this season, having spread shoes and not started well. He however has undoubted ability and is on a fair mark. He is my selection for the win but if you are trying to get a placed horse it may be wiser to look elsewhere. Ishetoo is more consistent and looks set to run a big race. Cheveton has the widest draw and needs to find improvement whilst Hogmaneigh should be staying on the best at the finish. Sirens Gift seems to flatter to deceive but still is a good bet to finish close to the winner. Fullandby promises a lot but probably will find things happening too quickly and River Falcon will need gaps to open at the right time. I am siding with the big chestnut Captain Dunne - JB.
Selection: Captain Dunne
Danger 1: Ishetoo
Danger 2: Hogmaneigh
Ascot 3:30 Deloitte Autumn Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo)
A nice little Group 3 for some promising 2 year olds. The race was won last year by Ibn Khaldun on his way to further triumph in the Racing Post Trophy. Sadly a poor Guinea’s run is all to show from his Classic season but Godolphin have another one this year in the form of Anmar. They are on a hot streak right now, including a 2 year old double at Lingfield on Friday. Anmer won on debut but was beaten over the mile on his only other run which is a slight doubt. Stable and jockey seem bang in form so one to be considered strongly. Another for the short list is the Queen’s horse Four Winds who is the current favourite. A winner over the distance it has to be in with a chance. However he has not been in a race of this class before. Kite Wood too should be in the mix. A winner of a lesser class race but on the same ground and distance as Saturday’s race is from another yard that is in form. Mishrif will be stepping up to a mile for the first time. Beaten by Wingwalker on debut he will have to improve to take this. I like the look of Taameer. Tregoning seems back on track and with just one race under his belt, further improvement will hopefully be seen. His victory was in a class 2 and over the mile so all are positives - VE.
Selection: Taameer
Danger 1: Anmar
Danger 2: Kite Wood
Ascot 4:05 David & Toni Eyles Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
Many in with a chance and the likely favourite, Stoute's colt Ascot Lime is certainly a threat but the formlines are mixed with him. Beaten comfortably by a G3 horse last time out but ran creditably, nosed out Conquisto in the race before who has disappointed since. Amanjena has only raced on soft ground on her maiden and was supposed to be turned in for the season so it is a surprise to see her here. Andrew Balding has had a good season and intends to keep her in training next season so he must fancy her chances.
Heaven Knows has beaten the G3 horse that did for Ascot Lime but that was last season and the handicapper hasn't dropped him enough to be competitive. Prince Forever and Ladies Best are also giving plenty of weight away and seem to be stuck to filling out the minor placings. Ramona Chase was obliterated by St Leger winner Conduit early in the season but is going to have to replicate that performance to have a chance here.
I'll take a chance and select Amanjena, although she is not proven on soft she hasn't had a chance and didn't struggle in her maiden and will come on for that. Ascot Lime to round out the top 2 and Ladies Best to run on for third - AR.
Selection: Amanjena
Danger 1: Ascot Lime
Danger 2: Ladies Best
- Princess Ellis
- Tastahil
- Jim Bobs Girl
- Captain Dunne
- Taameer
- Amanjena
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